long range south pacific swell forecastlong range south pacific swell forecast

In autumn and and early spring the Santa Ana wind brings weeks of offshore conditions. W wind 10 ktbacking to SW. Wind waves 3 ft. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 100W at +1.75 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 94W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for North CA with northwest winds building to 10-15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. THU The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/17 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 95W with only a tiny pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 95W while rapidly fading in coverage. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Our Weather Data That swell will be showing the dominant energy for the majority of the breaks, but that WNW swell will still be hanging in there too. Northern US in store for show from the northern lights - New York Post The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179E. S wind 5 to 10 ktbecoming 10 kt. For the long range, guidance is advertising a gale low emerging over the far northwest Pacific and tracking east-southeast Friday into the weekend. Surface Analysis Chance of 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean): 1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/24) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Gales associated with this system are shown. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table. Another gale is forecast developing in the deep South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/1) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas building. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California Updated: Fri, 28-Apr-2023 08:53:54 UTC. 2023 Snow-Forecast.com | Privacy | Cookie Policy. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building on the equator west to 138W and from there to the dateline and beyond. Saturday the 13th (building day) into Sunday the 14th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell as models like the idea of another storm breaking off Antarctica in a similar position as the one for the middle of next week (model by FNMOC): Based on 144-hour models, this would bring chest+ sets to south facing breaks, angled from 195 with periods 16 seconds. WED In the evening 40 kt northwest winds are to be building off the Pacific Northwest with 27 ft seas at 43.5N 137.75.5W aimed east. Level up to a Premium Membership to unlock 16-day forecasts and other useful forecasting tools. Thank you to everyone who has donated! Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. The North Pacific is looking slow in the longer range as expected, so focus is shifted towards the South Pacific now. What Just Happened?? Teahupoo Bombing Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. WED NIGHT There looks like there will be pockets of lighter winds as our local catalina eddy spins up, so near Ventura and LA looks lighter than OC most mornings. Tide levels Swell building Tues (5/2) into the mid-afternoon at 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft). Summer is slightly less consistent but still excellent by most standards. Within 5 nm of In the evening 40 kt northwest winds were off the Pacific Northwest with 27 ft seas at 42.5N 138.5W aimed east. Friday should then be partly sunny as weak high pressure pushes into SoCal, increasing beach max temps to the low 60s. As for rain: Since this low lacks a more predictable jetstream guidance, one has to choose from the widely disparate models to play weather-roulette for timing and amounts. There could definitely be a few good corners with this mix of swells. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. Customize forecasts for any offshore location and save them for future use. Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Washington and Oregon waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:31 UTC California waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:48 UTC: NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Astoria, OR: Swell fading on Fri (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) early. By Nathan Cool. LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST. TUE NIGHT On Sat AM (4/29) 40-45 kt northwest winds are forecast building well off the Pacific Northwest with seas 24 ft at 44.5N 142W aimed southeast. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). On Sunday (4/30) North and Central CA had sets at chest high and a mushed mess with whitecaps and chop. Amazing. The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). And yet another gale is forecast developing in the Southeast Pacific tracking well northeast (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). We will also see a new pulse in localized NW windswell which will add some consistency out there as well as helping out with the shape. Copyright Nathan Cool | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | PV: 8.1.18. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. W wind 5 kt. webmaster.ndbc@noaa.gov, Disclaimer NW wind 15 to 20 kteasing to 5 to 10 kt late in the Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). W wind 5 ktbacking to SW after midnight. Crime against visiting surfers is common and becoming increasingly so, especially in the north. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting. Models are still diverged, possible morning window, but at this time conditions look mostly unfavorable. Swell NW On Thurs AM (5/4) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 40S 132W aimed northeast. Doubtful meaningful weather will result. Something to monitor. Oahu: Swell fading on Thurs AM (2/24) from 2.6 ft @ 12 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles Thurs AM (5/4) fading from 3.2 ft @ 11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). The morning may have a little window that could be worth a look. description. 6 to 7 ft. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper with pockets of 28 degs temps on the surface. Swell W 5 to 6 ft. THU Wind waves 2 ft or less. Pacific-Ocean Surf Map - Wind and Wave forecasts Pacific-Ocean wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. California, South Surf Reports and Surf Forecasts - Magicseaweed.com Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. Still plenty of swell out there though. Slight chance of showers through the day. Sunday the 7th, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Monday is looking at onshores picking up early, reaching 15-20 mph in the afternoon, possibly to 25 mph late afternoon. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. CFSv2 Data TONIGHT Saturday the 6th should run chest high at south facing breaks with occasional head high sets at standouts. Maui Weather Forecast for April 26, 2023 : Maui Now Condition-wise: a showery week ahead with measurable rain some days; winds trend onshore until later in the week; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair. Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/25) building from 5.6 ft @ 18 secs at sunrise (10 ft) to 7.2-7.9 ft @ 17-18 secs late afternoon (13.0 ft). No tropical systems of interest are forecast. U.S. Offshore Marine Text Forecasts by Zone - National Weather Service 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc, https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html, http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. W wind 5 ktveering to NW. A previous core of cooler water near the Galapagos (the core of La Nina) is gone. Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/23): neutral trend was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to the dateline. SB Harbor reported 57 this morning. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. The morning is looking fairly light with just a touch of south wind, followed by a light onshore wind in the afternoon. Belong anywhere with Airbnb. 2. Chance of showers. The Pacific-Ocean Weather Map below shows the weather forecast for the next 12 days. The other swell will be a selective but fun WNW groundswell for winter spots. See chart here - link. On Mon AM (2/28) winds to build to 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 42N 154.75W aimed east. 45154 /45520. TUE NIGHT Pacific Beach (PB) Surf Forecast | 16-Day Extended Surf - DeepSwell Surfline on Instagram: "Modern warriors: @felixpatutra01 and @m_pang 13 secondssubsiding to 9 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Fetch raced northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 52N 154W aimed east. This means no cool water was at depth. Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Sceaux-du-Gtinais Holiday Rentals & Homes - Centre-Val de Loire Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup! 2. Swell should be angled from around 305-315 with periods 14 seconds from the ground swell and 8-10 seconds from wind swell. On Fri AM (4/28) west winds were 40 kts about half way to the dateline with seas 31 ft at 43.5N 162.75E aimed east. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. The East Shore was chest high and lightly chopped from moderate east trades. Beyond 72 hours the models are teasing about a tiny gale developing on Sun AM (2/27) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska with 40 kt west winds over a small area and 29 ft seas at 41.5N 147W aimed east. Wind Outlook: It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. One positive would be that theyre looking slightly better than the weekend. Swell from it is poised for Hawaii. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. On Sunday (4/30) the jetstream was split over the South Pacific with most energy tracking east over the 55S latitude line under New Zealand falling to 64S over the Southeast Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino through the day and evening. Today (4/30) the Daily Index was positive at +12.76 and has been near there the last 5 days, but negative the previous 15 days, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. 2 Finals Swell Coming From the North - Then It's All Down South. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). Swell NW 8 to 10 ft at 10 seconds. Hourly Multiple Swells Wind Highlighting Model. WaveCast - SoCal The North Pacific is looking slow in the longer range as expected, so focus is shifted towards the South Pacific now. Global-Pacific Surf Map - Wind and Wave forecasts Central Orange County had sets at chest high on the peak and lined up with decent form and soft but clean. This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds to deal with. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 7 day forecast has moderate east anomalies holding over the bulk of the KWGA to east of 150E till 5/3 then pushing east with modest west anomalies developing filling most of the KWGA by 5/3 and then getting strong over the for West Pacific on 5/5 wand holding through the last day of the model run on 5/7. A few more like it are on the surf radar, and I'll get to those in a sec. Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/29): A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru as Kelvin Wave #1 starts fading there. Maui Weather Forecast for April 30, 2023 : Maui Now 5 nm of Brookings southward, NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Jetstream About Us South Central Pacific Gale On Wed AM (4/19) southwest winds were 45-50 kts starting to track northeast with seas 39 ft at 59.5S 153.75W aimed northeast. Swell NW 8 ft at 9 seconds. National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS56 KSEW SUN SW wind 10 to 20 kt. long range south pacific swell forecast - CleanWorld Chance Residuals continue if not rebuilding slightly later Sat (5/6) at 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). A few peaks to track down through the workweek, but conditions dont look great then. A small pocket of cooling was indicated over the Galapagos. Fetch was fading from 35 kts Wed AM (2/23) over a large area filling the West Pacific with seas fading from 31 ft at 35N 169.25E. You can help Wikipedia by expanding it. Steve Shearer (freeride76) Monday, 01 May 2023. the afternoon, thenbecoming 2 ft or less. Overview Today (2/24) the daily index was negative at -0.96 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. PZZ350-011600 Your heart knows the way. This feature requires a Premium Membership. Tuesday the 16th into Wednesday the 17th could see yet another southern hemi ground swell, and we can see why it, and the ones before it, have high potential for surf-worthy status in SoCal (model by FNMOC): That jetstream model shows a nice, ideal, northward bend in the jetstream, guiding storms off Antarctica to direct their swell energy toward SoCal. The period was dominated by La Nia conditions, which tend to enhance hurricane activity in the . Thursday looks similar with southerlies dominant. Southern California is for good reason surfing's second home after Hawaii and the base of much of the industry. A south wind is expected in the morning across OC and San Diego, but it could be manageable. 5 ft. The Pacific-Ocean Weather Map below shows the weather forecast for the next 12 days. Overview Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. I'll need a few more days to confirm, but I'm on it and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep you posted. Surface Water Temps Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. The South Shore had thigh high sets and clean with sideshore texture and weak. FORECAST UPDATE: Swell peaks overnight, from roughly midnight to 8am, then tapers gradually through the day. Saturday looks clearer and warmer so far. Surface Analysis Portsmouth, VA: Sandy Hook, NJ to Murrells Inlet, SC. Summer - Head high or better. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date. SST Anomaly Projections Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm 1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/30) Weak west anomalies were over the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the bulk of the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). That jet-bend on this model for the 8th-9th of this month, falls in an 8- to 9-day swell window for SoCal; hence, swell ETA by the 17th. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time. Swell Direction: 315 degrees. Chance of showers. Summer - Chest to head high. This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds SW wind 10 kt. NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing Current Conditions Detailed Surf Reports, 16-day Surf Forecasts, Surf Photos, Live Winds, Tides and Weather | Swellnet Premium ad-free surfcams, dawn surf reports, forecaster notes, long range surf forecasts. 30, 2023 6:45 AM On Tues AM southwest winds to be lifting northeast at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 21 ft at 55S 154W aimed northeast. SW wind 5 ktbacking to SE after midnight. Lows 63 to 69. Boston, MA: Eastport, ME to South of New England. Meteorological Overview It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but is quickly fading at the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. Which could be a fun morning may turn out a bit choppy. Wind Late in the weekend a trough of low pressure is expected to approach the region, bringing much cooler temps and increased onshore flow. waves 2 ft or less. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +5 degs. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models. Long Range Forecast Activity in the South and North Pacific look to die down a lot compared to our action-packed week of swell. Today we have a 4' high around 6:30 AM, a 0.5' low around 1:30 PM, and a 4.5' high around 8:00 PM. Just a minor mix of south swell and NW windswell expected. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Jetstream patterns make surf forecasts more predictable, so even though that's a 210-hour model, confidence is fairly high that we'll see something out of it. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) sgi_tile=1; Thursday, February 24, 2022 Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii.